PRITARTA

PRITARTA Official translation 8 May 2013 Government of the Republic of Lithuania ResoluTION NO 343 ON THE CONVERGENCE PROGRAMME OF LITHUANIA OF 2013 23 April 2013 Vilnius Acting pursuant to Article 7 of Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (OJ 2004, Special Edition, Chapter 10, Volume 1, p. 84), as last amended by Council Regulation (EC) No 1175/2011 of 16 November 2011 (OJ 2011 L, 306, p. 12), which lays down a multilateral surveillance procedure of the European Union Member States carried out in the form of stability and convergence programmes, the Government of the Republic of Lithuania has  resolved: 1. To approve the Convergence Programme of Lithuania for 2013 (as appended); 2. To charge the Ministry of Finance with the task of submitting the Convergence Programme of Lithuania for 2013 to the European Commission. Prime Minister                                                                                 Algirdas Butkevičius Minister of Finance                                                                         Rimantas Šadžius APPROVED BY Resolution No 343 of 23 April 2013 of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania CONVERGENCE PROGRAMME OF LITHUANIA FOR 2013 CHAPTER I. FINANCIAL POLICY OVERVIEW 1. The Convergence Programme of Lithuania for 2013 (hereinafter referred to as “the Programme”) projects the economic policy outlined in the Programme of the Sixteenth Government of the Republic of Lithuania approved by Resolution No XII-51 of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania of 13 December 2012 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 149-7630, 2012) (hereinafter referred to as “the Programme of the Government”) as well as in the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 153-7823, 2012). 2. The Programme is oriented towards the development of implementing measures for specific short-term (nearest term) and mid-term objectives, namely: 2.1. To implement a budgetary policy ensuring economic growth, increase of employment, and reduction of unemployment, poverty and social exclusion and enabling an increase in real wages in the country. To swiftly improve the conditions for business and investment. 2.2. To ensure financial sustainability of the national economy and achieve a consistent growth in public funds’ revenues, while curbing smuggling and shadow economy and strengthening the fight against corruption. 2.3. To use the resources of European Union (hereinafter referred to as “EU”) assistance efficiently and rationally in order to enhance the country’s competitiveness and raise the living standards. 2.4. To cut the debt of the State Social Insurance Fund and, with economic recovery, to raise the pensions and other social benefits in a consistent fashion. To address energy problems and to modify the science and education policy. 2.5. To continue the implementation of the economic policy commitments of the exchange rate mechanism II (hereinafter referred to as “ERM II”) and, in the medium term, to achieve sustainable compliance to the criteria set out in the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (OJ 2010 C 83, p. 1), as well as to prepare for the adoption of the euro. 3. The Programme gives an overview of recent economic developments in Lithuania, a projection of a medium-term budgetary policy, an assessment of factors of economic development and fiscal risk, the quality of government finances, and a description of Lithuania’s readiness to overcome the effects of the ageing population. The guidelines for Lithuania’s structural reforms are laid down in the Programme of the Government, while the progress of implementing the structural reform measures is described in the National Reform Programme 2013. When implementing the structural reforms envisaged in the Programme of the Government, priority will be given to measures that would enable effective reduction of dependence of the Lithuanian economy on imports of energy resources from third countries without losing productivity. This should reduce the risk of the structural current account deficit (hereinafter referred to as “CAD”) and preserve for Lithuanian residents the potential of national revenues to promote domestic consumption and to provide credits for investment. 4. The Programme examines and assesses environmental conditions for the achievement of the economic policy goals. The Programme has been based on assumptions concerning the euro exchange rate, as well as the prices of oil and other raw materials relied upon by the European Commission when preparing the winter forecast 2013. 5. In implementing the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Fiscal Discipline (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 120-4881, 2007), after 2012 the general government balance indicator will be further improved by approximately one percentage point of the GDP on an annual basis. In order to minimise the effects of pro-cyclical consolidation on economic development, a new Medium Term Objective to keep structural deficit within 1% of the GDP has been set. CHAPTER II. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK SECTION I. ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE PROJECTIONS 6. The key assumptions for the external economic environment, while implementing the EU fiscal surveillance procedure and seeking to ensure comparability of economic forecasts of the EU Member States, correspond to the assumptions on the euro exchange rate and prices of oil and other raw materials, which were used by the European Commission when updating the scenario for the winter forecast 2013. Table 1. Key assumptions Indicator 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Short-term interest rates (annual average) 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.6 Long-term interest rates (annual average) 4.8 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.8 USD/EUR exchange rate (euro area and ERM II countries) 1.28 1.35 1.35 1.35 1.35 Nominal effective exchange rate 0.8 0 0 0 0 Exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro (annual average) (for countries not in euro area or ERM II) N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. World GDP growth (excl. EU), % 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.5 4.5 EU GDP growth, % -0.3 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 Growth of relevant foreign markets, % -0.3 0.1 1.6 1.6 1.6 World import growth (excl. EU). % 4.0 4.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 Oil prices (Brent, USD/barrel) 111.8 113.7 106.4 106.4 106.4 Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Lithuania, European Commission (2013 winter forecast) Lithuania’s prospects for export markets in the EU represent the key assumption of the economic development scenario. It was also assumed that in 2013–2016 the Eurozone's fiscal stability risk will be brought under control. The economic development scenario providing for a sustainable potential growth of the economy depends on the speed of implementation of structural reforms, falling interest rates, and the growth of investments up to the multi-annual average. SECTION II. THE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY 7. Lithuania’s monetary policy is being developed under the conditions of a fixed exchange rate. Such an exchange rate regime increases confidence in Lithuania’s economic policy and together with a competitive economic environment allows pursuing relative long-term price stability. Openness of the economy, relative flexibility of prices and wages, exchange rate importance for price stability are those features of the Lithuanian economy that contribute to the successful application of the fixed exchange rate strategy. Upon becoming an EU Member State, Lithuania undertook to replace the litas with the euro in the future. Lithuania has been participating in the ERM II since 28 June 2004, by implementing a unilateral commitment to maintain a fixed exchange rate regime and a fixed national currency exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro. Lithuania’s monetary and exchange rate policy goals remain unchanged. Lithuania has been participating in the ERM II by maintaining a strictly fixed litas exchange rate vis-à-vis the euro in accordance with the previously established exchange rate, and intends to join the euro area as soon as the convergence criteria are met. The Bank of Lithuania maintains the level of institutional preparation, which under favourable macroeconomic conditions will ensure a smooth and rapid currency changeover. Bearing in mind the urgent priority of the Government of the Republic of Lithuania (hereinafter referred to as “the Government”) identified in the Programme of the Government, namely the country’s preparedness for the introduction of the European common currency and full membership in the Eurozone as soon as that becomes possible based on the established convergence criteria, Government Resolution No 178 of 27 February 2013 on the coordination of actions for the preparation of Euro introduction in the Republic of Lithuania (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 23-1120, 2013) was adopted. To ensure smooth introduction of the euro in the country, preparation for this step will be coordinated at the highest level of the Government. The Resolution has established a management scheme allocating the duties and responsibilities to institutions. In the course of preparation for the introduction of the common European currency in Lithuania, workgroups will examine, within their competence, the possibilities of assisting business in the preparation process as well protecting consumers from possible abusive practices and will address other relevant issues. One of the key priorities is adequate public awareness promotion. In implementing the said Resolution, the drafting of amendments to the National Euro Introduction Plan and the Strategy for Raising Public Awareness of Euro Introduction and for Communication, approved by Government Resolution No 1050 of 29 September 2005 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 117-4235, 2005; No 49-1898, 2007) as well as of the Plan of Implementing Measures for the National Euro Introduction Plan has begun. SECTION III. OVERVIEW OF ERM II IMPLEMENTATION 8. The Government of the Republic of Lithuania must pursue an economic policy in line with the commitments made on 28 June 2004, when it joined ERM II. With the aim to ensure a balanced growth in loans in the country, the Bank of Lithuania undertook several measures. First of all, the Responsible Lending Regulations, approved by Resolution No 03-144 of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania 1 September 2011 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 111-5262, 2011), laying down the principles for the assessment of bank risks and the assumed risks, came into force in 2011. The legal act establishes loan-to-value ratios, debt service-to-income ratios, and the loan maturity date. Furthermore, it ensures that clients receive sufficient and comparable information regarding conditions of the loan before signing the agreement. In addition, the Responsible Lending Regulations impose more stringent restrictions on foreign currency lending. Should the growth in loans shows signs of economy overheating or lack of crediting, the Bank of Lithuania is entitled to change the rates of loan-to-value ratios and of debt service-to-income ratios to tighten or loosen the credit standards, as appropriate. In order to ensure effective joint supervision of the financial sector, the functions of the authorities responsible for the supervision of insurance and securities have been delegated to the Bank of Lithuania. This new unit is in charge of strengthening the management of systematic risk, client education and client complaint hearing. In recent years, the economic environment became different from the one that prevailed at the time of joining ERM II, which makes the obligations as regards speedier implementation of structural reforms a priority. Reforms in the fields of pensions, education, and health care systems will be pursued further. Other implementing measures for structural reform will be specified in the National Reform Programme 2013. SECTION IV. ECONOMIC CYCLE AND MEDIUM-TERM ECONOMIC  DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO The real sector 9. Although the remarkable development in 2011 was followed by a slower growth period in the Lithuanian economy in 2012, when the GDP increased by 3.6%, the Lithuanian economy has proved resistant to negative external and internal factors and has remained one of the fastest-growing economies across the EU. This economic growth owes to the expanding production, record-high cereal harvests, rapid development of export, and consumption. The positive impact of domestic demand was less significant in 2012: the growth in household consumption expenditure lost steam, and domestic investment began shrinking as of the second quarter of 2012. A record-high agricultural harvest affected net export in the second half of 2012. Other influences, such as the ability to compete internationally or a slower growth in domestic demand, were felt throughout the year. The declining domestic demand had negative effects on import because of a slower growth in the demand for means of production and final goods. The competitiveness of enterprises, as a factor of export development, was positively affected by a change in production costs – the productivity increase was practically matched by the rise in wages. In Lithuania, this allowed enterprises to capture larger market shares, as export grew faster compared to the demand in the main foreign trade partners. In 2012, growth in gross value added was the most remarkable in the sectors of agriculture, forestry and fisheries (8.6%), information and communications (7%), trade, transport, accommodation and catering services (6.3%) and manufacturing (6%) After a more active period in 2011, the construction sector suffered yet another recession in 2012, as the value added generated in this sector dropped by 5% year on year. In 2012, compared to 2011, export of goods and services grew faster than import (11.2% and 5.6%, respectively) and therefore net export positive contributed to GDP growth. Lithuania’s economy has preserved its competitiveness; therefore the scope of export growth in 2013–2016 should be close to that of the multi-annual average export growth. Lithuania’s economic agents have postponed their investment plans due to the uncertain economic development prospects of the Eurozone and therefore investments in gross fixed capital formation contracted by 2.5% in 2012 (the decline was the most severe, at 7.7%, in the fourth quarter). Businesses’ reluctance to invest was probably preconditioned by their belief that their production capacity were sufficient despite the fact that the utilisation thereof exceeded the long-term level. Financial difficulties probably played a minor role in discouraging investment, as most of the investment projects in 2012 were financed from companies’ own funds. The improving financial situation of companies is reflected by both the profit figures that grew with every quarter as well as their deposit balances in financial institutions, which hit historic heights at the end of 2012. Thus it can be expected that in 2013–2016 the recovery of the external environment, favourable borrowing conditions, better economic prospects compared with other EU Member States, a business-friendly environment as well as the projects initiated by the Government (a new dwelling renovation scheme) will encourage Lithuanian entrepreneurs to expand their industrial capacities (72% of which are now in use) and expand investments. A slower growth in real household incomes in 2012 put a break on the growth of household consumption expenditure. Household consumption was additionally suppressed by the fact that households paid more to cover their obligations to financial institutions than they received in the form of interest on deposits kept in those institutions. Nevertheless, this suppressive effect was overshadowed by a positive impact owing to the fact that the balance of consumer and other (except housing) loans in 2012 did not decrease as much as it had done in 2011. Another positive impact on household consumption came from the lessening of saving incentives due to the improvement of households’ financial situation. It should be noted, based on consumers’ opinion surveys, that in the second half of 2012 the financial situation of households received the best evaluation since the start of economic recession. Private sector indebtedness has limited and will continue to limit consumption funding opportunities, yet the growing income and private deposits will enable moderate growth of private consumption in 2013: inflation recently has been higher than the interest rates on deposits, which serves as a stimulus for consumption and not for saving for the future. Public sector consumption will remain moderate due to the need to further consolidate public finances. Although the outlook of EU economic growth remains uncertain, the economic government policy followed by the European Central Bank and the EU Member promises that the period of 2012–2015 will see continued formation of favourable conditions for the growth of Lithuania’s economy. Table 2. Macroeconomic indicators Indicator ESA* code Indicator value in 2012, million LTL Change, % 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Real GDP B1*g 83 637.5 3.6 3.0 3.4 4.3 4.0 Nominal GDP B1*g 113 188.8 6.4 5.5 6.4 7.8 7.8 Components of real GDP Private consumption expenditure + NPISHs P.3 52 051.3 4.7 2.0 5.5 5.7 6.1 Government consumption expenditure P.3 13 496.8 0.7 5.1 -1.7 0.0 0.5 Gross fixed capital formation P.51 16 245.3 -2.5 5.4 10.5 7.1 3.3 Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables (% of GDP) P.52+P.53 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Exports of goods and services P.6 69 675.9 11.2 14.2 8.1 6.9 3.3 Imports of goods and services P.7 65 868.4 5.6 14.8 10.0 7.7 4.1 Contributions to real GDP growth, % Final domestic demand – -0.5 3.4 5.1 5.1 4.8 Changes in inventories and net acquisition of valuables P.52+P.53 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. Balance of goods and services B.11 – 4.2 -0.4 -1.7 -0.8 -0.8 Sources: Statistics Lithuania, Ministry of Finance * European System of Accounts. Inflation 10. Average annual inflation, calculated in accordance with the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (hereinafter referred to as HICP), amounted to 3.2% in 2012 and was almost one percentage point lower than in 2011 (4.1%). The main factor behind the decrease in average annual inflation in 2012 was a slower growth (and even a decrease for some goods) of prices primarily in relation to external factors. Major influences include the fact that the growth in the prices of food was 2.5 times slower year on year as a result of good grain harvests and more consumer-friendly global prices of food commodities; that as a result of a slower increase in oil prices the growth of prices for transportation goods and services was twice as slow; and that a slight drop in the prices of natural gas resulted in a slower growth in the prices of the goods and services in the group of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. The administered prices and the prices of food, including beverages and tobacco, each accounted for one third of the inflation. Among food products, the greatest influences on inflation were the rising prices of meat and dairy products as well as tobacco price increases that resulted from higher excise duties. About a half of the impact of administered prices came from heat, component with the biggest weight in this group of products, the price of which went up by more than one tenth in 2012. The rise in administered prices in 2012 also owes to the growing prices of gas (in the middle of 2012, the natural gas price for household consumers jumped by more than one fifth) as well as passenger carriage by road and electricity. Growth in the prices of market services was stimulated by increasing prices of restaurant and cafe services, which experienced a certain delayed effect caused by the changes in food prices. External factors aside, core inflation (excluding the prices of unprocessed food and energy) in 2012 was insignificant and stable: the average annual core inflation amounted to 2.4 per cent and its change did not exceed half a percentage point. It could be said, therefore, that last year the country achieved price stability. Various price indicator developments in 2012 were advantageous to consumers. Producers influenced consumer prices modestly and the annual increase in producer prices on the domestic market went down in 2012. The growth in import prices towards the end of 2012 was also much less significant than in the beginning of the year. In 2013, inflation will be somewhat affected by the adopted tax decisions. At the beginning of the year, several new value-added tax (VAT) concessions (for passenger carriage, press etc) came into force, while certain excise duties were increased (as of January – for gasoline due to the end of Lithuania’s transitional period as well as for smoking tobacco due to the entry into effect in the EU of new minimum excise rates for this product; as of March – for cigarettes in order to gradually reach the EU excise rate, for cigars and cigarillos so as to avoid a possible replacement effect for cigarettes). From the start of 2013, the minimum monthly wage was raised to LTL 1 000 (by 17.6%), with possible effects on inflation, as the growing company costs may have a certain impact on prices. It is expected that in the medium term consumption recovery will be moderate, the effect of external factors, such as the prices of food commodities and energy, will be limited, while the average annual inflation will amount to 2.4–3.2%. The inflation deceleration processes, which began in 2011, are expected to end in 2013. A moderate growth in inflation is likely in 2014–2016, to be followed by upward trends in labour demand and wages. Nevertheless, a small risk remains that the price of oil will grow more rapidly than predicted in the European Commission’s assumptions due to various unforeseen factors (such as possible disruptions of international oil supply or geopolitical conflicts), which would have a negative impact on the prices of various goods and services in Lithuania. Moreover, due to the constant growth in the global demand for food, the prices of food commodities and products could decline only in the case of favourable natural conditions for harvests. Therefore, rising food commodity prices are also associated with the risk of higher inflation in the medium term. The impact of the prices of food commodities and energy on inflation would be stronger in Lithuania, compared to developed countries, due to a bigger share in the consumer’s basket related to these prices. Although the pace of export growth in 2013 is likely to be similar to that a year ago, the increase of the minimum monthly wage this year will result in a more substantial growth of wages compared to the year 2012. Subsequently, as the demand for labour will continue growing in the country, while the supply of workforce will be slightly decreasing, the wages will grow even faster. Wages are expected to increase by 5–6.5% in the 2013–2016 period. Table 3. Price indicators Indicator ESA code Indicator value in 2012 Change, % 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. GDP deflator 135.3 2.7 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.6 2. Private consumption deflator 140.2 3.3 2.5 2.9 3.0 3.6 3. HICP* (average annual) 103.2 3.2 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.2 4. Public consumption deflator 148.8 -1.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 3.0 5. Investment deflator 136.3 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.7 6. Export price deflator (goods and services) 142.9 3.5 -0.9 1.7 2.0 2.0 7. Import price deflator (goods and services) 139.6 4.2 -0.8 1.6 1.7 1.7 Sources: Statistics Lithuania, Ministry of Finance *HICP – Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices. Labour Market 11. In 2012, Lithuania ranked second among EU Member States according the pace of unemployment rate reduction. Having dropped by a 2.5 percentage points (to 15.3%) in 2011, unemployment kept declining at the same speed in 2012 and averaged 13.2%, 2.1 percentage points below the 2011 level. This resulted from a 1.8% rise in employed population and a 13.7% decline in the number of unemployed persons. In 2012, the rate of employment for residents in the age group 15–64 amounted to 62.2% and increased by 1.9 percentage points as against the previous year. One of the reasons for the rise in employment was the rising number of job vacancies, which averaged 10.5 thousand in 2012, a 7% improvement year on year. The most sizeable growth in employment against the year 2011 was recorded in the manufacturing sector, where the employed population increased by an average of 8.7 thousand persons (4.5% growth), in transport and storage – by an average of 4.1 thousand persons (4.5% growth), in information and communications – by an average of 3.9 thousand persons (15.2% growth), in professional, scientific and technical activities – by an average of 3.7 thousand persons (8% growth), and in construction – by an average of 3.6 thousand persons (4.2% growth). If we compare the second half of 2012 against the second half of 2011, the growth in employment was faster than that which would result from a comparison between the first half-year periods of the respective years, and this promises that the rapid improvement of the labour market situation will continue in 2013. Optimism concerning employment growth and unemployment decline is also inspired by the improvement, albeit slow, of the results obtained by surveys on business concerning the projected number of employees for the next 2–3 months, the increasingly favourable consumer opinions on the anticipated changes in the number of unemployed people over the next 12 months, as demonstrated by consumer opinion surveys, and the long-term unemployment figures that have been declining for nearly two years in a row (labour force surveys show that in the fourth quarter of 2012 the number of people that had been out of job for a year or longer totalled 87.3 thousand, i.e. was 37.6% smaller than two years before, when long-term unemployment figures were the highest since the second quarter of 2002). Table 4. Labour market indicators Indicator ESA code Indicator value in 2012 Change, % 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. Employment, persons (thou) 1 278.5 1.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 2. Employment, hours worked 2 373 709 -6.7 – – – – 3. Unemployment rate (%)* 13.2 – 11.5 10.5 9.8 9.1 4. Labour productivity (real GDP per employed person), thou LTL 79.7 4.9 2.4 2.8 3.7 3.6 5. Labour productivity, hours worked (real added value per actual hour worked), LTL 42.9 14.1 – – – – 6. Compensations of employees, million LTL D.1 44 070.7 5.0 5.7 5.8 6.4 6.9 7. Compensation per employee, LTL 34 470.6 3.2 5.0 5.2 5.8 6.5 Sources: Statistics Lithuania, Ministry of Finance * Indicator value is given. Despite the economic recovery and the relatively fast decline in unemployment, it will remain substantial in the medium term. The unemployment rate is expected to decline to 11.5% in 2013 and should amount to 10.5%, 9.8% and 9.1% in 2004–2016, respectively. SECTION V. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS OF LITHUANIA 12. In 2012, the current account balance fluctuated a great deal due to one-off factors. A large current account deficit, which accumulated in quarter 1 (10.7 per cent of the GDP, i.e. the largest since 2009), in quarter 2 was replaced by a surplus of 5.1 per cent of the GDP. Such changes were mostly determined by non-systemic factors – a part of transfers of the EU Structural Funds, which were planned for quarter 1, were late (due to an investigation conducted by the European Commission), while in quarter 2 the company ORLEN Lietuva underwent overhaul, therefore, foreign trade flows were clearly redistributed. In quarter 3, the current account was better balanced (its deficit stood at 1 per cent of the GDP). In quarter 4, due to a foreign trade surplus and a significantly smaller income deficit, a surplus of the current account balance of 3.3 per cent of the GDP was recorded. In the entire year 2012, the current account deficit made up LTL 0.6 billion, or 0.5 per cent of the GDP. The year 2012 saw intense development of the nominal export of goods (its annual growth amounted to 14.5 per cent), though it was affected by a weakening foreign demand, which partially demonstrated good competitiveness of Lithuanian exporters. Still, at the start of the year, the development of export was considerably weak (12 per cent in quarter 1 and 4 per cent in quarter 2) due to unfavourable development of both re-export and of export of products of Lithuanian origin. The former was particularly affected by the previous year’s base of transport vehicles export (which was a result of changes in customs duties in certain countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States), and the latter – by the said overhaul of the company ORLEN Lietuva due to which, in quarter 2, the export of products of Lithuanian origin was even lower than a year before. In the second half of the year, trends changed and export started increasing (it constituted 16.4 per cent in quarter 3 and 24.7 per cent in quarter 4): the increased domestic demand in the markets of the Commonwealth of Independent States and the diminishing base effect of transport vehicles export had a favourable impact on re-export, while the re-established operation of the oil refining industry and the export of the harvest of products of agriculture determined lively export of products of Lithuanian origin. The year 2012 was particularly favourable to Lithuania’s farmers: the harvest of grain crops alone was higher, by a quarter, than a year before, while due to high global food prices, in the second half of the year, their nominal export value was higher more than twice. The development of the nominal import of goods, in 2012, was slower than that of export. Due to decreased domestic demand, the growth of import was lowest compared with the last three years (9.9 per cent). At the beginning of the year, fluctuating demand for raw materials by the oil refining industry determined an especially uneven development of import – in quarter 1, import grew 13.7 per cent year on year, while in quarter 2, it decreased year on year (though, it decreased only by 1 per cent). Later in the year, the development of import was more stable – in quarters 3 and 4, import grew 13.1 and 13.8 per cent respectively. Compared with the year before, both import of consumer goods and import of investment goods markedly decreased, which showed reserved expectations of consumers and the business as they were especially affected by uncertainty resulting from the intensified euro-zone crisis. In 2012, just as in earlier years, a positive impact on the current account balance was exercised by current transfers, which consisted primarily of assistance from EU Structural Funds and remittances to Lithuania by emigrants. The current transfers from EU funds increased by LTL 551.9 million (17.9 per cent), while remittances by individuals from foreign countries decreased by LTL 409.3 million (10.3 per cent) year on year. The common surplus of the current transfer balance deceased by LTL 317.6 million (8.6 per cent). The service balance changed in a different manner – its surplus during the period in question increased by 25.2 per cent, primarily due to the improvement of transportation (in particular, road transportation) service export and travel service balance, which, possibly, reflects the growth of the incoming tourism. As usual, the impact of the income deficit on the current account balance was negative, however, in 2012, it decreased by 5.6 per cent. The capital account, reflecting EU Structural Fund capital transfers, in 2012, had a surplus of LTL 2.5 billion, thus, compared with the 2011 balance, it was lower by 5.3 per cent. The overall foreign debt decreased from 77.8 per cent of the GDP in 2011 to 75.6 per cent of the GDP in 2012. The general government sector, in 2012, borrowed externally especially actively because of the need to re-finance previous debts, cover the general government deficit and accumulate, in advance, funds to repay large debts at the beginning of 2013. In the medium term, the current account balance should remain negative: weak foreign demand in 2013 is expected to slow down the recovery of the national economy, therefore, domestic demand – in particular, investment – will gain even greater importance for the development of the national economy, while import will see faster growth than export. Table 5. Sectoral balances Indicator ESA code % of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. Net lending/borrowing vis-à-vis the rest of the world B.9N 0.9 0.2 -1.4 -1.8 -2.2 of which: balance of goods and services 0.6 0.2 -1.2 -1.6 -2.0 balance of primary income and transfers* -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 capital account* 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 2. Net lending/borrowing of the private sector 4.1 2.7 0.1 -1.3 -2.7 3. Net lending/borrowing of general government B.9N -3.2 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 4. Statistical discrepancy 0 0 0 0 0 Sources: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Lithuania* SECTION VI. RISK-RELATED ASPECTS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT 13. The major concern for the Lithuanian economy and its financial institutions is the imbalance of the public and financial sectors of European countries, while the prospect of Lithuanian export markets in the EU continues to represent the main risk factor in terms of changes in the economic development scenario. So far, there are doubts as to whether all EU Member States which are undergoing the debt crisis will implement structural reforms and overcome the crisis successfully. There is a risk that due to increasing problems in the euro zone the banking sector credit risk may suddenly increase, which would have an adverse effect on financial stability. Whether or not the economic development scenario introduced in the Programme will come true also depends on the following assumptions: the use of EU assistance in 2013 will grow as expected;  long-term interest rates on loans in the national currency will remain in a sustainable fashion at a level acceptable to investors in industrial capacities as well as consumers (this assumption is equivalent to the continuous accumulation of national reserves for the stabilisation of the general government debt); timely measures to neutralise the risk of structural current account deficit will be implemented. Unstable external environment may increase the interest on new loans, with a downward effect on investment and consumption. A faster-than-expected growth in oil prices may also have a negative impact on economic development. The abovementioned risks should be managed by giving priority to measures that allow effective reduction of dependency of Lithuania’s economy on energy resources imported from third countries when implementing structural reforms foreseen in the Programme of the Government. Divergence from the plans for the use of EU support funds would correct the growth of the GDP to such an extent that the correction makes up half of the used funds. There is still positive risk as well that allows hope that the pace of economy development will be more rapid than foreseen in the economy development scenario if trust of the EU business sector will increase more rapidly than suggested in the European Commission winter forecast 2013. The current account deficit worsening risk may be mitigated by a more rapid export growth than that stipulated in the economic development scenario. CHAPTER III. PUBLIC FINANCES SECTION I. STRATEGY FOR FINANCIAL POLICY 14. The main aim of 2012–2016 activities of the Government is Lithuania’s economic growth. This aim can be reached by conducting active investment and taxation policy geared towards job creation and, therefore, also towards reduction of emigration. A tool of such policy is economic-priority-based investment strategy. Investment first of all should be aimed at the increase and development of efficiency of industry as the economy’s driving force. The small and medium-sized business should recover. The state will stick to fiscal and budgetary discipline and at the same time will actively work to ensure that the borrowed funds are not “eaten” but used to increase the state’s revenue. Having reduced in 2012 the general government deficit to 3.2 per cent of the GDP, the general government finances will be consolidated further seeking to achieve a new Medium Term Objective. Taking into account the multiannual negative output gap and promoting economic growth, a more modest Medium Term Objective is established, namely, to achieve that the structural deficit is not higher than 1 per cent of the GDP. Conditions will be created for the general government deficit to consistently decline by a percentage point of the GDP in 2013–2015, reaching in 2016 a surplus of 0.5 per cent of the GDP as provided for in the Law on Fiscal Discipline of the Republic of Lithuania. 15. Bearing in mind that the country’s macroeconomic stability is a safeguard for the growth of the living standard, the budgetary policy will be cautious and will ensure strict control of the public finance system and long-term sustainability of general government finances. With the aim to further consolidate public finances, the following priorities of the medium-term macroeconomic policy are established: 15.1. to align the current fiscal policy with the priorities of social policy; 15.2. to encourage the continuation of the launched energy reforms; 15.3. in order to ensure long-term sustainability of general government finances, to continue implementing the reforms of the pension system and the health system as well as other structural reforms provided for in the Government programme; 15.4. to create favourable conditions for the improvement of labour efficiency, improve competitiveness of the economy, attract more foreign direct investment, and successfully implement EU cohesion policies; 15.5. to boost confidence in the long-term sustainability of general government finances and fiscal discipline norms that ensure long-term economic development; follow the rule that under suitable economic conditions a stabilisation reserve would be regularly accumulated using a part of state property privatisation funds, taxation and other revenue; establish the procedure for the use of the stabilisation reserve funds considering the status of the economic cycle; 15.6. to enhance medium-term planning framework of the State Budget of the Republic of Lithuania (hereinafter referred to as “the State Budget”); manage state finances in a more efficient manner, use the accounting data of public sector finances based on the accumulation principle; 15.7. to base saving of the State Budget expenditure on concrete priorities; for certain areas, the State Budget expenditure should not be reduced, however, funds should be used more efficiently; having restored sustainable economic growth, according to the priorities increase financing for areas which ensure the provision of lacking services for the population and which create new jobs; 15.8. in a comprehensive fashion, to review the taxation system focusing in particular on taxation of labour income and privileged VAT tariffs; possible changes should be planned in such a manner as to ensure that they do not slow the decrease of the general government deficit; 15.9. to curb shadow business, strengthen the fight against corruption; increase the State Budget revenue by applying strict measures for the reduction of shadow economy; focus on the fight against smuggling, for that purpose, review the legislation, as appropriate, reform relevant state institutions, and create an effective incentives system for officers. 16. With a view to maintaining confidence in the principles of the currency board arrangement, Lithuania will, in the area of fiscal policy, continue to provide favourable conditions for improving labour efficiency, encourage investment, create a favourable business environment, and ensure effective use of public funds allocated for investment. Any additional general government revenue or unspent planned expenditure will be used for the achievement of the balance targets in the general government sector and for measures aimed at ensuring long-term sustainability of general government finances. Measures planned for 2013-2016 to achieve the structural general government budgetary targets 17. According to the updated economic development scenario, there is no risk of non-achievement of the nominal general government budgetary targets for 2013–2016 resulting from economic development and no additional measures are provided for the management of such risk. 18. The following measures are planned for the achievement of the structural general government budgetary targets during 2013–2016 as indicated in line 10 of Table 9: 18.1. to improve tax administration and reduce the scale of shadow economy; 18.2. to increase the excise tariff on cigarettes (aiming to meet the minimum tariffs stipulated in EU acquis); 18.3. to continue the reduction of public expenditure and/or change the applicable taxes when that is necessary to compensate for the loss of revenue resulting from the tax reform or to maintain the deficit decline trends if the expenditure grows more rapidly than the economic potential. SECTION II. IMPLEMENTATION OF COUNCIL RECOMMENDATIONS WITH A VIEW TO BRINGING AN END TO THE SITUATION OF EXCESSIVE GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT 19. EU Council Recommendation of 16 February 2010, with a view to keeping the general government deficit below 3 per cent of the GDP in 2012, urges Lithuania to ensure an average annual fiscal effort of at least 2.25 per cent of the GDP over the period of 2010-2012, notably by containing primary current expenditure, adopt the additional measures necessary to achieve the correction of the excessive deficit by 2012, cyclical conditions permitting, and accelerate the reduction of the deficit if economic or budgetary conditions turn out better than expected. Lithuania is recommended to enhance the medium-term budgetary framework, including by strengthening fiscal governance and transparency and reinforcing expenditure discipline and by introducing necessary forward-looking elements and mechanisms to avoid pro-cyclicality. In 2012, Lithuania continued fiscal consolidation in compliance with the excessive deficit procedure. Compared with the year 2011, the general government deficit decreased by LTL 2.2 billion (2.3 percentage points of the GDP). Instead of the expected general government deficit of 3 percent of the GDP for 2012, as specified in the Lithuanian Convergence Programme for 2012, approved by Resolution No 446 of 25 April 2012 of the Government (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 50-2453, 2012), a deficit totalling 3.2 per cent of the GDP was achieved. First, municipalities spent 0.2 per cent of the GDP of the revenue exceeding the plan. Second, the state received dividends from the private company Visaginas Nuclear Power Plant in the amount of 0.3 per cent of the GDP, however, the Department of Statistics of Lithuania applied the test of superdividends and stated that the planned dividends were not revenue. Drafting of the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the Public Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 was based on the attitude that expenses, compared to 2012, may not increase, except for the inevitable cases and cases when immediate or strategic challenges must be met. Pursuant to Resolution No 447 of the Government of 25 April 2012 on the preliminary main indicators of the national budget of the Republic of Lithuania in 2013–2015 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 50-2454, 2012), the maximum limits of appropriations (for expenditure and acquisition of assets) for 2013 were calculated for the State Budget appropriation managers with regard to the appropriations approved by the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2012 (apart from EU and other international financial support, contributions from the revenues of budgetary institutions to the State Budget as well as part of tax revenues and other funds envisaged by laws and other legislative acts for programme funding) minus the appropriations for the programmes and/or programme measures which were completed in 2012. Thus the 2013 State Budget appropriations have been planned to be no higher than in 2012 (except for certain areas where public expenditure will increase: debt management – about LTL 148 million, contributions to the EU budget – LTL 138 million, and Lithuania’s presidency over the EU Council – LTL 136 million) minus the funds of the programmes completed in 2012. In order to provide for additional LTL 61.8 million of the State Budget expenditure necessary due to the increase of the minimum monthly wage to LTL 1,000 as of 1 January 2013, the 2013 State Budget appropriations have been reduced to ensure that the overall increase of the State Budget expenditure is in compliance with the Law on Fiscal Discipline of the Republic of Lithuania, i.e. the 2013 State Budget appropriations, apart from EU assistance funds, compared with 2012, would increase by LTL 224 million. The Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 restricts the right of appropriation managers to assume financial obligations: the estimate of a programme of the appropriation manager funded from a specific part of State Budget tax revenues the specific uses and designation of which are defined in the said law and/or in a resolution of the Government may not exceed 85 per cent of the approved amount; the programme’s estimate for the remaining amount shall be updated in October 2013 with the approval of the Ministry of Finance, which evaluates the data on the collection of three-quarter tax revenues from which the programme is financed as well as the amount envisaged to be collected in a year; the Ministry of the Environment for the 2013 payments from the Special Programme on Climate Change may not use more funds than actually paid in 2013. In case the State Budget revenue plan is not implemented, the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 obliges the Government to submit, by 1 June 2013, to the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania the Draft Law Amending the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 to make sure that the general government deficit does not exceed 3 per cent of the projected 2013 GDP. Ensuring publicity and transparency of the composition of the State Budget, the information related to the 2013 State Budget is published on the website of the Ministry of Finance. A great deal of attention is paid and is envisaged to be paid to the improvement of tax collection and fight against tax evasion. For that purpose, the plan is to implement preventive measures (one of such preventive measures is the right granted to the tax administrator to restrict, for a certain period, settlement in cash for persons who have committed certain tax violations) and measures aimed at promotion of voluntary payment of taxes (having simplified tax calculation, declaration and payment, and having introduced a modern consultation system) as well as to make practical work of law enforcement and control institutions more efficient by establishing concrete measures according to the riskiest areas in terms of tax administration and focusing on the cooperation of the control institutions. More attention will also be given to areas which mostly affect the scale of shadow economy, i.e. the fight against smuggling, VAT fraud and illegal employment as well as excise control; appropriate measures have been prepared and are implemented. To reduce shadow economy aspects related to the payment of work pay, which has not been registered in official accounting, and to illegal employment as well as the adverse impact of those aspects on the State Budget revenue, the State Tax Inspectorate conducts a wide-scale targeted programme covering measures with regard to selection, monitoring and control of risky tax payers, and measures aimed at encouraging the general public, associated business structures and employees themselves to actively contribute to the reduction of shadow economy. These efforts resulted in positive outcome already in 2012: in 2012, the national budget revenue collection target was implemented by 100.7 per cent, the revenue received exceeded that of 2011 by 8.1 per cent. The State Budget planning and execution system reform is ongoing; the reform is closely connected with the transposition into national law of the provisions of Council Directive 2011/85/EU of 8 November 2011 on requirements for budgetary frameworks of the Member States (OJ 2011 L 306, p. 41). Currently the Ministry of Finance is preparing certain legislative drafts to be submitted to the Government. Pursuant to the Law on Fiscal Discipline of the Republic of Lithuania, the Government in its Resolution No 1282 of 24 October 2012 (Valstybės žinios (Official Gazette) No 125-6273, 2012) adopted the Conclusion concerning the compliance of the Draft Law of the Republic of Lithuania on the Approval of Financial Indicators of the State Budget and Municipal Budgets of 2013 with the recommendation of the Council of the European Union and, together with the EU Council recommendation, submitted it for consideration to the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania. These documents have already been considered by the committees of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania. SECTION III. STATE BUDGET IMPACT ON MEDIUM-TERM GENERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETARY TARGETS 20. The general government finance structure in 2013-2016, compared to 2012, will undergo major changes due to restricted increases in the expenditure for wages, intermediate consumption and social benefits: expenditure will grow slower than the nominal GDP. Currently no data is available on the new financial perspective and its implementation plans; thus, based on the assumption, it is likely that in 2014-2020 the multi-annual financial perspective will repeat the multi-annual trends, and the GDP part comprised of the gross capital in 2014 will be approximately 1 percentage point of GDP lower than in 2015–2016. As wages and other taxable bases will rise faster in 2015, the necessary conditions for an increase in labour compensation and intermediate consumption in general government will emerge. 21. In the programme, the general government finance projections essentially change due to expenditure growth restrictions as set forth in the Law of the Republic of Lithuania on Fiscal Discipline, Council Regulation (EC) No 1466/97 of 7 July 1997 on the strengthening of the surveillance of budgetary positions and the surveillance and coordination of economic policies (OJ special edition, chapter 10, volume 01, 2004, p. 84) and Council Regulation (EC) No 1467/97 of 7 July 1997 on speeding up and clarifying the implementation of the excessive deficit procedure (OJ, special edicion, chapter 10, volume 01, 2004, p. 89), (hereinafter – EU Stability and Growth Pact). Table 6. General government indicators (S13), 2012–2016* Indicator ESA code Value of indicator in 2012 (LTL million) Percentage of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. General government S.13 -3 666.2 -3.2 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 2. Central government S.1311 -1 401.1 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 0.0 0.9 3. State government S.1312 N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. 4. Local government S.1313 -282.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 5. Social security funds S.1314 -1 982.3 -1.8 -1.5 -1.0 -0.4 -0.3 General government (S13) 6. Total revenue TR 37 229.9 32.9 32.2 32.2 31.5 31.1 7. Total expenditure TE 40 896.1 36.1 34.7 33.7 32.0 30.6 8. Net lending/borrowing EDP B.9 -3 666.2 -3.2 -2.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.5 9. Interest expenditure EDP D.41 2 074.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 10. Primary balance -1 591.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.4 1.3 2.2 11. One-off and other temporary measures 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 Revenue 12. Total taxes (12=12a+12b+12c) 18 175.5 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.1 12a. Taxes on production and imports D.2 12 620.8 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 11.1 12b. Current taxes on income, wealth, etc. D.5 5 550.6 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 5.0 12c. Capital taxes D.91 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13. Social contributions D.61 12 846.8 11.3 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 14. Property income D.4 626.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 15. Other 5 580.8 4.9 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.3 16=6. Total revenue TR 37 229.9 32.9 32.2 32.2 31.5 31.1 Tax burden (D.2+D.5+D.61+D.91-D.995) 30 973.6 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.1 Expenditure 17. Compensation of employees + intermediate consumption D.1+P.2 16 791.8 14.8 15.4 14.7 14.3 13.8 17a. Compensation of employees D.1 10 917.6 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.1 8.8 17b. Intermediate consumption P.2 5 874.2 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.1 18. Social payments (18=18a+18b) 15 684.0 13.9 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.7 of which unemployment social insurance benefits D621+D. 624 234.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 18a. Social transfers in kind D.6311, D.63121, D.63131 1 941.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 18b. Social transfers other than in kind D.62 13 742.5 12.1 11.5 10.9 10.5 10.1 19=9. Interest expenditure EDP D.41 2 074.4 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.7 20. Subsidies D.3 360.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 21. Gross fixed capital formation P.51 4 376.1 3.9 2.9 3.2 2.6 2.2 22. Other 1 609.6 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 23=7. Total expenditure TE 40 896.1 36.1 34.7 33.7 32.0 30.6 Government consumption (nominal) P.3 19 941.63 17.6 18.0 17.2 16.6 15.9 Sources: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Ministry of Finance * Due to rounding, the sum of revenue and expenditure components may be different from the amounts given under “total revenue” and “total expenditure”. Table 7. General government revenue, 2012-2016 Indicator Value of indicator in 2012 (LTL million) Percentage of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. Total revenue at unchanged policies 37 229.9 32.9 32.2 32.2 31.5 31.1 2. Total expenditure at unchanged policies 40 896.1 36.1 34.7 33.7 32.0 30.6 Sources: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Ministry of Finance Table 8. Amounts to be excluded from the expenditure benchmark Value of indicator in 2012 (LTL million) Percentage of GDP 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 1. Expenditure on EU programmes fully matched by EU funds revenue 4 821.0 4.3 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.2 2. Cyclical unemployment benefit expenditure 68.5 0.06 -0.01 -0.06 -0.09 -0.12 3. Effect of discretionary revenue measures 125 0.11 -0.04 0.02 0.03 0.03 4. Revenue increases mandated  by law 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sources: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Finance In 2012, the non-discretionary changes in unemployment benefit expenditure accounted for LTL 68.5 million or 0.06% of GDP. Unemployment benefits will stabilise in the medium term as a result of a more favourable situation in the labour market. To evaluate cyclical unemployment benefit expenditure, the structural unemployment level in Lithuania, calculated by the European Commission, was used. When comparing the structural unemployment level for 2013–2016 with the unemployment level projected for 2013–2016, a cyclical unemployment benefit component was taken into consideration. In terms of the classification of state functions (code CG1005), unemployment benefit projections for 2013–2016 were calculated according to the multiannual average ratio between unemployment benefits and the GDP. In the medium term, the general government revenue (as a percentage of GDP) will be subject to decline due to the declining absorption of the EU structural funds support: in 2016 the revenue will be the lowest, accounting for 31.1% of GDP. The GDP share of revenue from indirect taxes will be stable at about 11.1–11.3% of GDP. Revenue from direct taxes will also be stable at about 4.9–5% of GDP. An ongoing pension reform will allow preparations to reduce the general government debt envisaged for 2060. The reform is elaborated in paragraph 46 of the programme. The share of tax revenues allocated in 2012 for the implementation of the pension reform and transferred to private pension funds approximately accounted for 0.3% of GDP. Interest expenditure as a share of GDP stood at 1.8% of GDP in 2012. In 2016, the interest expenditure will drop to 1.7% of GDP. Gross fixed capital formation will slow down owing to the expiring Financial Framework 2007–2013 and subsequently, due to formed multiannual trends of absorption of the Multiannual Financial Framework. Balance of general government subsectors 22. In 2012, the balance of social insurance funds subsector improved by LTL 5.4m, however, it was similar to the deficit of the previous year, i.e. 1.8% of GDP. The local government subsector deficit in 2012 accounted for 0.2% of GDP. In 2012, the deficit of social insurance funds subsector accounted for 54.1% of the deficit of general government subsector. A declining deficit of the central government and social insurance funds subsector in 2013-2016 will have to result in the reduction of the total general government deficit in the medium term. The data provided in Table 9 show that, as a result of applied rule of restricted increases in the expenditure, set forth in the Law on Fiscal Discipline of the Republic of Lithuania, in 2013–2016 the average annual structural government deficit will shrink by around 0.8% of GDP. SECTION IV. STRUCTURAL GENERAL GOVERNMENT DEFICIT AND CONTINUITY OF FISCAL POLICY 23. In 2013, the structural general government deficit will decline by 1 percentage point of GDP, standing at 1.9% of GDP. The planned structural government balance indicator for 2012 was estimated negative, at – 2.9% of GDP, and, due to the application of the rule of restricted increases in the expenditure, set forth in the Law on Fiscal Discipline of the Republic of Lithuania as well as the measures increasing structural revenues, the balance will improve in 2016, standing at 0.2% of GDP surplus. The implementation of these plans requires continued decisive efforts to speed up structural reforms. Estimates of the output gap 24. The GDP cycle was estimated by applying the Hodrick Prescot (HP) filter approach. The estimated projections indicate that in the period 2013-2015 output gap will be negative. In 2013, the output gap will be 2.8%, 2.2% in 2014, 0.9% in 2015, and 0.1% in 2016. However, owing to short time-series and structural shocks under the Hodrick Prescot filter approach or under the production function approach (using NAIRU), the estimate of Lithuania’s output gap is not absolutely accurate. Conclusions obtained under the production function approach (based on the NAIRU conception) are, for the time being, not acceptable owing to short time-series, a lack of reliable data and a multitude of structural breaks. The NAIRU app …